March Madness Trends: 3 to Trust and 3 To Avoid

Katrin Kilpatrick
2026-04-28T09:50:25Z

Most seed-versus-seed outcomes ought to be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), but there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness trend. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce profits for those selecting the No. 12 seed - at least against the spread.

Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matchups. Over the past 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 tournament Round of 64.

Don't simply blindly bet on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this pattern with respect - like dealing with a cobra.

Three patterns to fade

There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering patterns out there that you need to never ever blindly track when placing your bets or building your bracket. Here's the tip of the iceberg.

Conference patterns

Certain conferences will have more ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, however the groups, opponents, gamers and spreads all differ when building out this bull crap. The general strength of conferences sways every year, so do not go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC [schools](http://ilshin.lnweb13.viaweb.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=product_inquiry&wr_id=11574) based exclusively on those conferences' counts against the spread.

Seed vs. Seed patterns

We have actually singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which damaged a lot of "savvy" brackets with all four No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors ought to tread lightly with that information and more so with other [patterns](https://innvo.pro/carrollmes) around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be expanding by the season, so don't base a bet entirely on the Selection Committee's seeding.

Point spread and Over/Under trends

Brace yourself for some doozies when it concerns any historical NCAA Tournament patterns powered by spreads and [overalls](https://phoebe.roshka.com/gitlab/edwardd6803804). You'll get tantalizing trends around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a certain point variety and Over/Under ideas based upon past overalls from particular seeding matchups.

As mentioned, some patterns can lead you down the right handicapping road however a number of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be doubtful of these patterns and look into the previous outcomes that powered them. If you can, attempt to identify a narrative behind them that might roll over into this year's March Madness field.

How sportsbooks deal with March Madness patterns

Perhaps the best way to determine how helpful March Madness wagering patterns are is to take a look at the folks setting the chances for March Madness.

If you ask an oddsmaker if they're considering the past against the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 match odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mostly disregard historical patterns, specifically in college sports, as player and skill turnover varies significantly from year-to-year.

[Oddsmakers base](https://l.igreentransforma.com.br/retaslate41023) their numbers on current kind and information from that season instead of historic hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random players led by random coaches from random conferences dipping into random sites. You get the concept.

The decision on March Madness patterns

Basketball bettors ought to be careful of lots of March [Madness patterns](http://kacm.co.kr/free/55). While [wagering](https://www.massage.blue/bbs/board.php?bo_table=qa&wr_id=23) on them blindly is bonkers, there are [lessons](http://113.177.27.2002033/jeremiahfairba/the-bet-9ja-promotion-code-2026-is-yohaig/wiki/The-Bet9JA-promotion-code-for-2026-is-YOHAIG) to be gained from examining them and detecting previous patterns.

Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has a [massive](https://greek-way.com/el/%cf%80%ce%b1%ce%ba%ce%b5%cf%84%ce%b1/) sports wagering database that pumps out multiple March Madness wagering patterns every year. And while he does not get on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the value in what he calls "anticipating expectancy".

"There is a reason that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who stop working to discover from history are destined repeat it,'" Lawrence states. "By finding out failures and successes from the past and using skills from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, groups alter, however strategies and patterns are extremely predictive ... By depending on previous patterns, we can better expect expectancy."

March Madness wagering websites

March Madness is a preferred season for sports bettors and one of the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every [betting](https://markamall.net/blog/season-essentials) website offering March [Madness](https://lunarishollows.wiki/index.php?title=The_Bet_9JA_Promo_Code_2026_Is_YOHAIG) odds, it is very important to know which are safe and secure, offer a vast array of banking alternatives, and offer you a ton of markets for each video game. Take a look at the finest March Madness wagering websites in your region, reviewed by Covers' team of educated experts.