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Opened Apr 28, 2026 by Christa Morrell@christamorrell
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Which Team will That Be?


Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets (10/3): Who Will Strike First in Vegas?

The first two rounds of the 2025 WNBA playoffs have been a genuine treat. Now, only two groups remain. Tonight, the very first of a historic matchup pitting the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces starts at Michelob Ultra Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).

It is a historic matchup, as it is the very first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in the league's history. It began with a single national championship in the league's inaugural season in 1997, expanded to a best-of-three series from 1998 to 2004, and was a best-of-five series for the previous 20 seasons.

Now, the WNBA is on par with the NBA and NHL as having a seven-game champion series. And what a time for its beginning, as the quality of basketball in the regular season and in the postseason has actually been remarkable.

The Mercury and Aces have actually been a huge part of that, and both groups have earned their location in the champion series.

After winning 27 games in the regular season, Phoenix eliminated in 2015's finalists, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, to reach the WNBA Finals for the very first time since 2021 and the sixth time overall.

The Aces, meanwhile, were bogged down in mediocrity for 2 and a half months, and the playoffs were not a certainty. But not only did they make the playoffs, they made it in as the No. 2 seed, and after enduring being taken to limit by the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, are looking to close out a rip-roaring run with a third champion in four seasons.

Who will take a 1-0 lead tonight in Las Vegas? Continue reading for our Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 forecast and best choices and get the very best value chances from leading online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.

Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends

- The Mercury are 9-9 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season, consisting of 6-6 SU and ATS as a roadway underdog.

  • Phoenix is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season when an underdog of 5 or less points.
  • The under is 13-10-2 in the Mercury's roadway games this season.
  • The under has hit in Phoenix's last 3 video games.
  • Las Vegas is 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season when favored by five or less points.
  • The under is 7-3 in the Aces' last ten home games, including three of their 5 home games in the playoffs.

    Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Choices

    Prediction: Aces to win

    In the very first 2 rounds and 6 series in this year's playoffs, 4 groups lost Game 1 and went on to win the series.

    Two of those belong to the Mercury, who went down 1-0 against both the Liberty and Lynx and came back to advance. Another comes from the Aces, who advanced after losing the opener to the Fever.

    So, whoever loses tonight should not be too discouraged, especially with the growth to a seven-game series.

    Which team will that be?

    Despite lastly putting away the Fever after being pushed to the outright limitation by an inspired Indiana group, the Aces did reveal some vulnerabilities in the semifinals.

    A'ja Wilson (26.0 PPG) and Jackie Young (20.5 PPG) are balling out in the playoffs, however they require aid if the Aces are to be successful vs. the Mercury in this series.

    And as hard as the Fever were to put away, the Mercury will be a lot more hard to dispatch. In the last three against the Lynx, Phoenix outscored Minnesota 87-43 in the 4th quarter and overtime, enabling them to get rid of deficits in all three games to stun the No. 1 seed.

    That said, the very first four Mercury vs. Aces matchups this season do merit some consideration. Phoenix won the first one at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 15, when Wilson was out due to a concussion. But the Aces won the last 3, including an 83-61 thrashing in the most current meeting on August 21.

    But after such a hard-fought series versus the Fever, might the Aces battle tonight vs. the Mercury much like they did in Game 1 vs. Indiana after a draining Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm.

    It is possible, however I'm taking them to rise to the celebration tonight.

    Mercury vs. Aces Best options

    1) Aces -3 (-117 at BetOnline)

    I do believe we will see a fairly close game this evening, however if you are backing the Aces, the percentages prefer a cover.

    Through the very first two rounds of the playoffs, just four of 20 video games were chosen by 3 or less points. And of the Aces' 37 wins this season, only 6 have actually been by three or less points.

    So, if they do win, it will likely be by a minimum of the margin required to cover the spread.

    2) Jackie Young Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Bovada) 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105 at Bovada)

    For Game 5 vs. the Fever, I backed Young to discuss 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists. She did both by some range, scoring 32 points and including a dime of dimes and 4 rebounds.

    While her points total is a tick lower tonight, the overall PRA is a number of ticks greater, which is not a surprise when Young has taped 19 helps in her last 2 games.

    I'm off of her points tonight, but I enjoy to stick to her PRA, as the Aces require her to keep rolling to endure vs. the Mercury. I might see a 15-point, nine-assist, five-rebound game from her.

    Young has actually scored 16+ points 29 times (in 52 games) this season, including six times in eight championship game, but she has yet to score 16+ points in 4 consecutive games this season. So, I see boards and assists doing some heavy lifting tonight.

    3) Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (+110 at Bovada)

    Thomas's high for points vs. the Aces this season is 17, which she hit when the Mercury lost by 22 in Vegas in August.

    But she has actually scored 17+ points in each of her last five games, consisting of successive 20+ point video games to go ahead of and close out the Lynx in the house. At these odds, I'm all too pleased to take her to keep it going.

    4) Satou Sabally to Score 20+ Points (+200 at Lucky Rebel)

    Benefiting from value is likewise at the leading edge of this play. Sabally has done this two times against the Aces this season, scoring 22 points in the June win at Michelob Ultra Arena and 26 in an 86-83 loss at PHX Arena on August 15.

    She also scored 20+ in each of the Mercury's three wins over the Lynx and put up 23 in the Game 3 win over the Liberty in the first round. With this and the fact that she has had 5+ rebounds in 6 of 7 championship game therefore far both in mind, the over 23.5 for her points + rebounds (which is +105 at Bovada) is likewise worth a look.

    Other WNBA Betting Content

    Betting News thoroughly covers the WNBA, offering best choices and WNBA choices daily for matches such as Fever vs. Aces, analysis of crucial stories from a wagering viewpoint, and more.

    Are you brand-new to banking on the WNBA? Check out our updated WNBA betting guide. It covers a lot of fundamental information about the league, how to wager on it, and betting tools and resources that can improve your possibilities of an effective season wagering on the WNBA.

    Several of our sports betting guides are also helpful resources for WNBA bettors. This includes our guide to futures bets, our breakdowns of line motion and line shopping, and our contrast of moneyline and spread wagering.
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Reference: christamorrell/the-bet-9ja-promo-code-for-2026-is-yohaig#1