Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks: Betting On Brooks
The PGA Tour concludes the Florida swing today with the Valspar Championship, as players make one last stop before shifting focus toward Texas and, ultimately, the Masters.
At Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, the field will deal with among the harder and more special tests on the schedule.
Let's break down the chances, course setup and best choices for this week's Valspar Championship.
Valspar Championship 2026 Odds
Xander Schauffele (+1100 )
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400 )
Viktor Hovland (+1800 )
Akshay Bhatia (+2200 )
Jacob Bridgeman (+2200 )
Justin Thomas (+2200 )
Brooks Koepka (+2500 )
Jordan Spieth (+2500 )
Patrick Cantlay (+2500 )
Corey Conners (+3000 )
Ryo Hisatsune (+3000 )
J.J. Spaun (+3500 )
Sahith Theegala (+3500 )
Austin Smotherman (+4000 )
Ben Griffin (+4000 )
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4000 )
Nick Taylor (+5500 )
Aaron Rai (+6000 )
Copperhead Course: What to Know
Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course|Palm, Harbor, Florida
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,352
Greens: Poa Trivialis (16th tiniest on Tour).
Fairways: Overseeded Ryegrass (4th narrowest).
Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass (4 inches).
Bunkers: 74.
Water in Play: 6
Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club has four courses on home, but Copperhead is the one that's hosted this event considering that it debuted on Tour back in 2000.
It is among the more underrated stops on the schedule and a layout gamers tend to delight in playing on. You're not getting your common Florida setup here either. Instead of broad fairways and flat terrain, Copperhead includes narrow, pine tree-lined corridors, a lot of tight doglegs and some visible elevation modifications throughout. It's comparable to TPC Sawgrass where placing matters more than simply bombing it off the tee.
Because of that, players are required to club down off the tee, which moves the benefit away from range and toward approach play.
Copperhead isn't a traditional par 71 either. It features five par threes, all 195 lawns or longer, and they rank as the ninth most difficult set of par threes on Tour. The four par 5s are far from easy too, grading out as the 4th toughest group regardless of being the finest chances for birdies.
It's also extremely much a second-shot course. Around 53% of approach shots come from beyond 175 lawns, with players striking into little, firm greens that are difficult to hold. That's a big reason that greens in regulation relax simply 57%, one of the most affordable marks on Tour.
You're going to have to be called in with your irons to create possibilities.
And with motorist utilized on barely half of tee shots, there isn't much separation off the tee. Strokes gained off the tee hasn't been a crucial indication of success here, which puts much more pressure on method play and the brief game.
With greens missed as frequently as they are, being able to get strokes around the green ends up being a big benefit when it concerns saving par and avoiding errors.
Include one of the toughest closing stretches on Tour with the Snake Pit, and this ends up being more about limiting mistakes and playing what's thought about uninteresting golf.
play is the biggest priority this week, particularly at similar hard scoring courses. With a lot of shots originating from 175 backyards and out into small, firm greens, I'm heavily weighting SG: APP and distance from range.
From there, I'm focusing on gamers who can deal with a grind. That means looking at bogey avoidance, scrambling and SG: ARG, together with good drive percentage to stay in position. I'm also factoring in par 3 and par 5 scoring, putting divides on Poa surfaces and overall performance in tough scoring conditions.
Valspar Championship Picks
Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1)|Top 30 (-125 )
It was a rocky start to Brooks Koepka's go back to the Tour, finishing T-56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and then missing out on the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, however it didn't take long for him to recover.
Koepka reacted with a T-9 at the Cognizant Classic and followed that up with a T-13 finish last week at THE PLAYERS.
This season, amongst this field, Koepka ranks second in SG: APP. Over the previous couple of years at courses with hard scoring conditions, he's 21st in that metric, and when you combine that with strong greens in policy numbers and his proximity from 175+ yards, it's precisely what you want at a course like this.
He's likewise 23rd in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds, which shows that even if his irons aren't called, he can still offset it around the green.
This field offers a fantastic chance for a star gamer to shine.
J.J. Spaun: To Win (34/1)|Top 30 (-124 )
I went back and forth on whether to pull the trigger on J.J. Spaun this week. It hasn't been a terrific start to the year, with his best surface coming recently at THE PLAYERS (T-24), however he's appearing a huge method my design, ranking fourth overall.
He's very first in SG: TOT in comparable scoring conditions, 3rd in GIR% over his last 36 rounds, eighth in SG: APP, 10th in Bogey Avoidance and 15th in Good Drive Percentage with a combined club choice off the tee.
The putter has cooled down a bit, which is really the primary concern, however if that even comes back to average, the rest of his game remains in a solid spot for a course like Copperhead.
With the Masters around the corner, Spaun could utilize a strong showing, and this feels like among the better opportunities for him to put it together.
Corey Conners: To Win (35/1)|Top 30 (-120 )
How could I not return to Corey Conners for a 3rd straight week? The Canadian treated us well at THE PLAYERS. Not only did he hold the lead for a stretch, however he ultimately cashed us a Leading 20 (+168) ticket with a T-13 finish at TPC Sawgrass.
I had him appreciated in my design last week, and the very same is taking place again for the Valspar Championship. He completed T-8 in 2015 at this event and in total has 12 rounds at Innisbrook, posting a True SG mark of +1.63.
Conners ranks second in Bogey Avoidance at hard scoring courses, fourth in SG: APP and 6th in Birdie or Better Percentage. He's been very precise off the tee with a combined club selection, he's striking greens in guideline at a high rate (second) and has actually done a nice job making the most of Par 5s.
What hasn't been as strong is the putter, in addition to his play around the green and on harder Par threes. Still, he had the ability to get rid of that recently. In a weaker field he could certainly do it again and actually win this thing.
Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1)|Top 30 (-106 )
This male has been a popular wagering choice this season, and for good reason.
The 25-year-old hasn't ended up worse than T-27, which came recently at THE PLAYERS. His best surfaces consist of a T-3 at the Phoenix Open and a T-6 at the Cognizant Classic.
Hojgaard's irons have been called in, the putter has been strong and he ranks initially in SG: Par 3 over the past couple of seasons on average-to-difficult Par 3s.
He'll need to stay constant off the tee and be a bit sharper around the green, but if he can do that, there's no factor he can't discover himself near the top of the leaderboard once again and perhaps even break through for his very first PGA Tour win.
Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1)|Top 30 (-102 )
Ryo Hisatsune ended up T-4 at this event last year, and the season prior he published a T-33. In total, he's acquired +1.68 strokes per round at Innisbrook.
What's much more convincing is his present type. He's missed just one cut in eight tournaments this season, and that was available in his very first start of the year at the Sony Open.
His best outcomes consist of a T-2 at the Farmers, a T-8 at Pebble Beach and a T-13 surface last week at THE PLAYERS.
He ranks 6th in SG: TOT on similar tracks and is also 6th in GIR% over his last 36 rounds. He's also including a 12th-place mark in Scrambling, 18th in Bogey Avoidance and 32nd in SG: PUTT on Poa Trivialis.
His iron play has taken an action forward this season and if that continues, it might carry him even further at Innisbrook this time around
Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1)|Top 40 (-108 )
It's time for our dark-horse choice of the week, which belongs to 27-year-old South Carolina native Mac Meissner.
It may be crazy to back a player coming off back-to-back missed cuts, however with him ranking 6th total in my model this week, he is difficult to overlook.
Meissner ranks first in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Scrambling and seventh in SG: APP at challenging courses similar to Copperhead.
He's likewise carried out well here, ending up T-26 in 2024 and T-28 in 2025, publishing a Real SG mark of +1.05.
I believe Meissner's got some worth today. I'll gladly lay -108 for a Top 40, and hope we're likewise sweating a 90/1 straight-out ticket come Sunday.
Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114 ).
Taylor Pendrith Top 30 Finish (+100 )
Something about those Canadians today, eh? My design is high up on our buddies from the Great White North, and I do not wish to lose out on wagering them to finish Top 30.
I don't think they have enough to win this tournament outright, however I believe they'll stay competitive for all four days.
Taylor hasn't missed out on a cut this season, and his play around the green can bring him through the week.
Meanwhile, Pendrith is showing up 10th in my design.
So let's add these 2 golfers to the card also, but simply with their Top 30 wagers.
Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1)|Top 30 (-125 ). Spaun: To Win (34/1)|Top 30 (-124 )
Corey Conners: To Win (35/1)|Top 30 (-120 )
Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1)|Top 30 (-106 )
Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1)|Top 30 (-102 )
Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1)|Top 40 (-108 )
Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114 )
Taylor Pendrith Top 3o Finish (+100 )